BA has just completed an analysis of the 2023 cruise capacity placement using its deployment database which has more than 10,000 sailings, 40 brands, and 300 ships worldwide, thus allowing BA to understand capacity placement by the industry. This database allows us to see and analyze specific vessels, port calls, and itineraries making this a powerful tool for looking ahead and seeing immediate patterns as they develop. Based on capacity placements, the major takeaways are:
Total cruise capacity: 2023 global passenger volumes will reach and very likely exceed 2019 levels. This is despite the industry retiring a number of vessels during the pandemic.
Distribution of capacity: The distribution of lower berth capacity has shifted in 2023. The Caribbean is expected to lead with 41% of global capacity, followed by the Mediterranean at 17%, Northern/Western Europe at 9%, and Alaska at 6%. Following these regions are Asia/Pacific, the North American West Coast, Australia, South America, and Bermuda. Previously, the capacity in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, and Northern Europe was 39%, 15%, and 9%, respectively. While capacity is sailing globally, some additional capacity has been redeployed to North American markets (and resumption has been strongest here) due to the fact that China, a key consumer-generating market, has still not reopened for cruising as of February 2023. Further instability in Northern Europe has given North American regions another competitive advantage as key North American brands look to redeploy ships to safer areas.
2023 Capacity Share by Region
Top Brands in terms of lower berth capacity: the top brands in terms of lower berths scheduled to be deployed in 2023 are in line with the largest brands in the industry. As sailings begin and the industry reaches 100% occupancy levels this year, actual passengers may vary above or below each brand’s scheduled berths.
1. Royal Caribbean International
2. Carnival Cruise Line
3. MSC Cruises
4. Norwegian Cruise Line
5. Celebrity Cruises
6. Princess Cruises
7. Costa Cruises
8. AIDA
9. Disney Cruise Line
10. Resorts World
Port Capacity – While the cruise industry is poised to make a strong recovery in 2023, the post-COVID recovery in 2022 was unequal, with some regions recovering faster than others. This uneven recovery is likely to continue into 2023, affecting the distribution of capacity and the demand for certain ports. This unequal recovery is likely to have a lasting effect on the cruise industry, with some regions experiencing a surge in demand while others may struggle to regain their footing. This uneven distribution of demand will directly impact the capacity of ports, with some ports seeing an increase in demand and others experiencing a decrease.
Data reflected in this bulletin is based on BA’s deployment database that includes all available cruise itineraries in 2023 for the majority of key ocean and river cruise companies. Figures are reflective of lower berths, and actual passengers may be higher or lower than lower berths based on occupancy levels. Data was collected in December 2022 and may change if deployments change.
