2023 global passenger volumes will reach and very likely exceed 2019 levels but distributed differently

BA has just completed an analysis of the 2023 cruise capacity placement using its deployment database which has more than 10,000 sailings, 40 brands, and 300 ships worldwide, thus allowing BA to understand capacity placement by the industry. This database allows us to see and analyze specific vessels, port calls, and itineraries making this a powerful tool for looking ahead and seeing immediate patterns as they develop. Based on capacity placements, the major takeaways are:

Total cruise capacity: 2023 global passenger volumes will reach and very likely exceed 2019 levels. This is despite the industry retiring a number of vessels during the pandemic.

Distribution of capacity: The distribution of lower berth capacity has shifted in 2023. The Caribbean is expected to lead with 41% of global capacity, followed by the Mediterranean at 17%, Northern/Western Europe at 9%, and Alaska at 6%. Following these regions are Asia/Pacific, the North American West Coast, Australia, South America, and Bermuda. Previously, the capacity in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, and Northern Europe was 39%, 15%, and 9%, respectively. While capacity is sailing globally, some additional capacity has been redeployed to North American markets (and resumption has been strongest here) due to the fact that China, a key consumer-generating market, has still not reopened for cruising as of February 2023. Further instability in Northern Europe has given North American regions another competitive advantage as key North American brands look to redeploy ships to safer areas. 

 

2023 Capacity Share by Region

Top Brands in terms of lower berth capacity: the top brands in terms of lower berths scheduled to be deployed in 2023 are in line with the largest brands in the industry. As sailings begin and the industry reaches 100% occupancy levels this year, actual passengers may vary above or below each brand’s scheduled berths.

1. Royal Caribbean International
2. Carnival Cruise Line
3. MSC Cruises
4. Norwegian Cruise Line

5. Celebrity Cruises

6. Princess Cruises

7. Costa Cruises

8. AIDA

9. Disney Cruise Line

10. Resorts World

Port Capacity – While the cruise industry is poised to make a strong recovery in 2023, the post-COVID recovery in 2022 was unequal, with some regions recovering faster than others. This uneven recovery is likely to continue into 2023, affecting the distribution of capacity and the demand for certain ports. This unequal recovery is likely to have a lasting effect on the cruise industry, with some regions experiencing a surge in demand while others may struggle to regain their footing. This uneven distribution of demand will directly impact the capacity of ports, with some ports seeing an increase in demand and others experiencing a decrease.

Data reflected in this bulletin is based on BA’s deployment database that includes all available cruise itineraries in 2023 for the majority of key ocean and river cruise companies. Figures are reflective of lower berths, and actual passengers may be higher or lower than lower berths based on occupancy levels. Data was collected in December 2022 and may change if deployments change.

CRUISE BULLETINS

Q1 2023 Earnings Report Key Themes and Takeaways

With the last of the big three public companies wrapping up their Q1 2023 earnings reports last week, it’s time for BA’s summary of the key takeaways and themes trending today, and what that means for the future of the industry…

How did 2022 end up and what happens next in 2023

2022 was a monumental transition year where operators placed ships back in operation throughout the first half of the year. After almost three years of uncertainty…

Ports should get ready for an increase in shorter itineraries

BA has just completed an analysis of the 2023 cruise capacity placement using its deployment database which has more than 10,000 sailings, 40 brands, and 300 ships worldwide, thus allowing BA to understand capacity placement by the industry…

2023 global passenger volumes will reach and very likely exceed 2019 levels but distributed differently

BA has just completed an analysis of the 2023 cruise capacity placement using its deployment database which has more than 10,000 sailings, 40 brands, and 300 ships worldwide, thus allowing BA to understand capacity placement by the industry…

Summary & Takeaways from Q3 Earnings Reports (CCL, RCG, NCLH)

A Normalizing Environment Paving Way for Strong 2023. The theme for CCL, RCG, and NCLH on this quarter’s earning calls was each company’s focus which has fully shifted from return to service to a relentless focus on return to strong profitability…

BA CRUISE BULLETIN – The Industry’s Quarterly Update from the Big Three (Public) Companies

This quarter’s earnings reports from Carnival Corp. (June 24), Royal Caribbean Group (July 28), and NCLH (August 9) have sent stocks down, up, and back down again, but overall, the business seems to have taken positive turns, including each company’s operating cash flow for the quarter…

Another Global Hurdle for the Cruise Industry? An Industry on the Rise

According to the most recent World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects Report, compounding the damage from the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation. The U.S. inflation rate passed 8.3%, the highest in more than 40 years, accompanied by the highest nationwide gas prices ever, and amidst the need for workers in many service industries, there have been layoffs in key tech sectors.

Big Three Cruise Corporations Q1 Earnings Summary

Resounding across all the major cruise operators’ quarterly earnings calls this week (CCLs in March), was that the industry (and each of the brands) have all reached “significant milestones” in their restart process that need to be celebrated. While 2022 is undoubtedly a transition year, 2023 appears to be shaping up to reach the industry’s full potential. NCLH’s presentation included the graphic below, which shows how far the industry has come over the last two and a half years of near-complete shutdown. In this newsletter, BA compares and summarizes key performance, financials, and trends across the big three cruise corporations based on their recent quarterly earnings calls.

The Pathway Forward Anticipates Substantial Cruise Growth, Are you Ready?

It has now been more than two years since the entire worldwide cruise tourism industry ground to a halt due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent government interventions that impacted all facets of our lives. For the past year, the industry has been slowly and meticulously resetting the onboard and shoreside guest experience through the development of protocols and procedures to get back to the business of cruising and providing people worldwide with great holidays!

Cruise Terminal 10 Galveston

2023 global passenger volumes will reach and very likely exceed 2019 levels but distributed differently

BA has just completed an analysis of the 2023 cruise capacity placement using its deployment database which has more than 10,000 sailings, 40 brands, and 300 ships worldwide, thus allowing BA to understand capacity placement by the industry. This database allows us to see and analyze specific vessels, port calls, and itineraries making this a powerful tool for looking ahead and seeing immediate patterns as they develop. Based on capacity placements, the major takeaways are:

Total cruise capacity: 2023 global passenger volumes will reach and very likely exceed 2019 levels. This is despite the industry retiring a number of vessels during the pandemic.

Distribution of capacity: The distribution of lower berth capacity has shifted in 2023. The Caribbean is expected to lead with 41% of global capacity, followed by the Mediterranean at 17%, Northern/Western Europe at 9%, and Alaska at 6%. Following these regions are Asia/Pacific, the North American West Coast, Australia, South America, and Bermuda. Previously, the capacity in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, and Northern Europe was 39%, 15%, and 9%, respectively. While capacity is sailing globally, some additional capacity has been redeployed to North American markets (and resumption has been strongest here) due to the fact that China, a key consumer-generating market, has still not reopened for cruising as of February 2023. Further instability in Northern Europe has given North American regions another competitive advantage as key North American brands look to redeploy ships to safer areas. 

2023 Capacity Share by Region

Top Brands in terms of lower berth capacity: the top brands in terms of lower berths scheduled to be deployed in 2023 are in line with the largest brands in the industry. As sailings begin and the industry reaches 100% occupancy levels this year, actual passengers may vary above or below each brand’s scheduled berths.

  1. Royal Caribbean International
  2. Carnival Cruise Line
  3. MSC Cruises
  4. Norwegian Cruise Line
  5. Celebrity Cruises
  6. Princess Cruises
  7. Costa Cruises
  8. AIDA
  9. Disney Cruise Line
  10. Resorts World

Port Capacity – While the cruise industry is poised to make a strong recovery in 2023, the post-COVID recovery in 2022 was unequal, with some regions recovering faster than others. This uneven recovery is likely to continue into 2023, affecting the distribution of capacity and the demand for certain ports. This unequal recovery is likely to have a lasting effect on the cruise industry, with some regions experiencing a surge in demand while others may struggle to regain their footing. This uneven distribution of demand will directly impact the capacity of ports, with some ports seeing an increase in demand and others experiencing a decrease.

Data reflected in this bulletin is based on BA’s deployment database that includes all available cruise itineraries in 2023 for the majority of key ocean and river cruise companies. Figures are reflective of lower berths, and actual passengers may be higher or lower than lower berths based on occupancy levels. Data was collected in December 2022 and may change if deployments change.

CRUISE BULLETINS 

Q1 2023 Earnings Report Key Themes and Takeaways

With the last of the big three public companies wrapping up their Q1 2023 earnings reports last week, it’s time for BA’s summary of the key takeaways and themes trending today, and what that means for the future of the industry…

How did 2022 end up and what happens next in 2023

2022 was a monumental transition year where operators placed ships back in operation throughout the first half of the year. After almost three years of uncertainty…

Ports should get ready for an increase in shorter itineraries

BA has just completed an analysis of the 2023 cruise capacity placement using its deployment database which has more than 10,000 sailings, 40 brands, and 300 ships worldwide, thus allowing BA to understand capacity placement by the industry…

2023 global passenger volumes will reach and very likely exceed 2019 levels but distributed differently

BA has just completed an analysis of the 2023 cruise capacity placement using its deployment database which has more than 10,000 sailings, 40 brands, and 300 ships worldwide, thus allowing BA to understand capacity placement by the industry…

Summary & Takeaways from Q3 Earnings Reports (CCL, RCG, NCLH)

A Normalizing Environment Paving Way for Strong 2023. The theme for CCL, RCG, and NCLH on this quarter’s earning calls was each company’s focus which has fully shifted from return to service to a relentless focus on return to strong profitability…

BA CRUISE BULLETIN – The Industry’s Quarterly Update from the Big Three (Public) Companies

This quarter’s earnings reports from Carnival Corp. (June 24), Royal Caribbean Group (July 28), and NCLH (August 9) have sent stocks down, up, and back down again, but overall, the business seems to have taken positive turns, including each company’s operating cash flow for the quarter…

Another Global Hurdle for the Cruise Industry? An Industry on the Rise

According to the most recent World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects Report, compounding the damage from the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation. The U.S. inflation rate passed 8.3%, the highest in more than 40 years, accompanied by the highest nationwide gas prices ever, and amidst the need for workers in many service industries, there have been layoffs in key tech sectors.

Big Three Cruise Corporations Q1 Earnings Summary

Resounding across all the major cruise operators’ quarterly earnings calls this week (CCLs in March), was that the industry (and each of the brands) have all reached “significant milestones” in their restart process that need to be celebrated. While 2022 is undoubtedly a transition year, 2023 appears to be shaping up to reach the industry’s full potential. NCLH’s presentation included the graphic below, which shows how far the industry has come over the last two and a half years of near-complete shutdown. In this newsletter, BA compares and summarizes key performance, financials, and trends across the big three cruise corporations based on their recent quarterly earnings calls.

The Pathway Forward Anticipates Substantial Cruise Growth, Are you Ready?

It has now been more than two years since the entire worldwide cruise tourism industry ground to a halt due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent government interventions that impacted all facets of our lives. For the past year, the industry has been slowly and meticulously resetting the onboard and shoreside guest experience through the development of protocols and procedures to get back to the business of cruising and providing people worldwide with great holidays!

BERMELLOAJAMIL© 2022